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Lingering fronts could cause a ‘homebrew’ tropical disturbance along the East Coast. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
By the end of the week, a ‘homebrew’ tropical disturbance might move into the US East Coast, according to experts.
After Hurricane Lee, meteorologists will be closely monitoring the near-coast Atlantic waters in the region from northeastern Florida to North Carolina towards the end of the week through this weekend in case a tropical system develops there that could bring rain and strong winds to a sizable portion of the Eastern Seaboard.
One method a ‘homebrew’ tropical system might arise, according to Bernie Rayno, an AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist, is through fronts that have stalled along the southeast coast of the United States.
By the end of the week, there is a very good chance that energy in the atmosphere will create an area of low pressure along a stationary front. Warm water is carried down much of the East Coast by the Gulf Stream, a current that emerges from the Caribbean.
Some interesting model trends from the GFS model late this week-
Old front south of us starts bubbling up an area of low pressure off our east coast. Could we see tropical or more likely subtropical development? Perhaps.
Nothing too big, but interesting stuff to watch; pic.twitter.com/AZHEgwxPbK
— Eric Burris (@EricBurrisWESH) September 17, 2023
The current water temperature in this region is much over the threshold required for tropical development to occur, reaching well into the 80s.
The low-pressure area will be pushed inland over the Carolinas this weekend, which raises the question of whether it will have enough time to completely develop into a tropical system.
In this zone, a few thousand miles above the surface, strong southerly breezes will blow, according to Adam Douty, a Senior Meteorologist from AccuWeather.
In addition to preventing full tropical development, wind shear could push the system quickly onshore and ultimately put an end to it.
According to Rayno, the wind shear will probably prevent a hurricane from intensifying.
Experts think there is a medium possibility for a tropical depression and possibly a storm to form over the southeast US coast from Friday to Sunday, taking into account all atmospheric factors that will either help or impede development.
Ophelia and Philippe
Ophelia and Phillippe are the next two storms on the list of potential tropical cyclones for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2023 since another area hundreds of miles away in the basin has the potential to form at the same time as the system that would be close to the United States.
Even in the absence of a designated storm, soaking rain is forecasted.
The storm system’s associated heavy rain and thunderstorms may be forced due north along the Carolina as well as mid-Atlantic coasts from Friday through Saturday, according to Douty, even if the storm’s center manages to stay right along the coast.
Upstate New York and a portion of New England may experience more rain from Saturday night through Sunday.
Additionally, a storm system moving in from the Midwest may draw moisture from the developing Atlantic system, increasing rainfall and possibly extending wet weather reaching as far as the central Appalachians.
Severe thunderstorms may form and produce a few tornadoes or waterspouts close to the shore if a tropical cyclone or even a hybrid system manages to acquire some tropical features.
Flash Floods and Travel Disruptions
Heavy rains increase the risk of urban and flash flooding, travel delays, and cancellation of outdoor events.
According to Douty, the coast from the Carolinas to southern New England might experience quite a bit of stormy weather from Friday through Sunday due to strong winds that will whip up the waters and produce powerful rip currents as well as the possibility of torrential rain and violent thunderstorms.
Therefore, again another tropical system may ruin a weekend of beach fun.
AccuWeather will keep an eye on this area close to the US, Hurricane Nigel, and other potential tropical development areas in the Atlantic during the next few days.
According to Rayno, there is a chance that a tropical system will develop once another tropical disturbance exits Africa and enters the Mid-Atlantic area.
However, experts said that the system will probably miss the US.
Up until the end of November, the Atlantic hurricane season is active.
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